The timing, speed and intensity of the demographic transition have differed markedly across countries and regions, depending on multiple factors of human development. According to the United Nations’ latest projections, India’s population is expected to reach its peak size around 2064 and then to decline gradually.Ĭhina and India offer contrasting examples of national trajectories through the demographic transition towards longer lives and smaller families. In 2022, at 1.2 births per woman, China had one of the world’s lowest fertility rates India’s fertility rate, at 2.0 births per woman, was just below the “replacement” threshold of 2.1, the level required for population stabilization in the long run. By contrast, the fertility decline in India has been more gradual: it took three and a half decades for India to experience the same fertility reduction that occurred in China over just seven years in the 1970s. Fertility in China fell sharply to fewer than 3 births per woman by the end of the 1970s (figure 3). In 1971, China and India had nearly identical levels of total fertility, with just under 6 births per woman over a lifetime. Current population trends in China and India are determined largely by fertility levels since the 1970s Uncertainty associated with the resulting estimates and projections implies that the date on which India is expected to surpass China in population size is approximate and subject to revision as more data become available. To estimate and project the size of the Indian and Chinese populations for subsequent years after their last censuses, the United Nations relies on information about levels and trends in fertility, mortality and international migration obtained from vital records, surveys and administrative data (United Nations, 2022b). India’s planned 2021 census was delayed due to challenges associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and is now scheduled for 2024. More than a decade has passed since India’s most recent census in 2011. In China, the most recent census was taken in November 2020. Projections indicate that the size of the Chinese population will continue to fall and could drop below 1 billion before the end of the century.Ĭensuses are key sources of information about population size and characteristicsīoth China and India conduct regular population and housing censuses to enumerate and document their national populations, and both countries use the information obtained to inform their development planning. By contrast, China’s population reached its peak size recently and experienced a decline during 2022. India’s population is virtually certain to continue to grow for several decades. In April 2023, India’s population is expected to reach 1,425,775,850 people, matching and then surpassing the population of mainland China (figure 1). The latest estimates and projections of global population from the United Nations, indicate that China will soon cede its long-held status as the world’s most populous country. As per experts, this happens due to overcrowded hospitals and increasing patient burden.Two “population billionaires”, China and India, face divergent demographic futures As per a study published in 2017, the average time a primary health consultant spends on a patient was two minutes. A large population can also lead to overuse of healthcare facilities like overburdened emergency rooms, overcrowded clinics and more patient burden. High population density also means increased contact between people and this can facilitate fast transmission of communicable diseases and make them easily uncontrollable as observed during the pandemic. Unavailability of these resources or their overutilization can further facilitate unhygienic consumption of food and water, increasing food and water borne diseases. Population directly affects the resources including the basic amenities such as food, water and shelter that are fundamental to sustain health.
It can lead to more poverty and inequal distribution among the population. In developing countries, where the divide in resource distribution is already wide, a rapidly growing population can make it worse. How does overpopulation affect healthcare? As per experts, rapid population growth in developing countries is likely to increase the burden on public health services.
While the relationship between overpopulation and healthcare problems is not very obvious, the former adversely impacts the latter.
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